The causes of war

War has plagued human history for centuries, resulting in immeasurable loss, devastation, and suffering. Understanding the factors that lead countries to engage in armed conflict is a complex and multifaceted endeavour. For this reason there are various theories and models that shed light on the causes of war

Realism offers a sobering perspective on the causes of war, emphasizing the pursuit of power and national interests in an anarchic international system. States, driven by self-interest and survival, engage in behaviours that can escalate into armed conflicts. The competition for resources, such as oil, natural gas, or strategic minerals, often leads to disputes over control and access. In regions where resources are scarce or unequally distributed, tensions can rise, ultimately resulting in conflicts. Furthermore, the security dilemma plays a crucial role, as states seek to enhance their military capabilities to ensure their own safety, but these actions can be perceived as threats by other nations, leading to a vicious cycle of escalation.

Power Transition Theory highlights the potential for conflict during periods of power shifts between dominant and rising powers. When a rising power challenges the established order, tensions can arise. The fear of losing power and influence can drive established powers to take preemptive action or engage in defensive wars to preserve their position. This dynamic was evident during historical power transitions, such as the rise of Germany before World War I or the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. Disruptive changes, such as technological advancements or shifts in economic strength, can further complicate power transitions and increase the likelihood of conflicts. The concept of “Thucydides’ Trap” neatly illustrates this theory.

The Democratic Peace Theory provides a more optimistic view, suggesting that democracies tend to avoid wars with one another. The presence of democratic institutions, norms, and values fosters peaceful conflict resolution mechanisms. Democratic leaders are accountable to their populations and face constraints on their actions, making it less likely for them to engage in unnecessary wars. Additionally, democratic societies tend to promote cooperation, negotiation, and diplomacy as means of resolving disputes. However, it is important to note that this theory does not preclude conflicts involving non-democratic states or clashes between democracies and autocratic regimes.

Economic factors significantly influence the likelihood of war. Resource scarcity, such as water or arable land, can intensify competition and trigger conflicts over access and control. The Resource Curse theory suggests that countries rich in valuable resources may experience heightened conflict due to struggles over resource management, corruption, and inequitable distribution of wealth. Economic inequality, both within and between nations, can create social unrest and grievances that, if left unaddressed, can escalate into armed conflicts. Moreover, trade disputes and protectionist policies can strain relationships between countries, leading to economic tensions that may spill over into military confrontations.

Ethnic, religious, and nationalistic factors often contribute to the outbreak of wars. Deep-seated ethnic or religious divisions, historical grievances, or aspirations for self-determination can create a fertile ground for conflicts. In some cases, political leaders exploit these divisions for their own gain, manipulating identity politics to consolidate power or divert attention from other issues. Nationalism, with its emphasis on a collective identity and often accompanied by notions of exceptionalism, can lead to territorial disputes, secessionist movements, or expansionist ambitions, heightening the risk of armed conflicts.

Alliance systems, while intended to provide security and deterrence, can inadvertently contribute to the escalation of conflicts. Entangling alliances, characterized by a complex web of mutual defence commitments, can transform localized disputes into broader, multinational wars. Obligations to defend allies or honor agreements can draw countries into conflicts that they might have otherwise avoided. Misinterpretations, misperceptions, or failures of communication within alliance networks can lead to miscalculations, making it challenging to de-escalate tensions and prevent conflicts from spiralling out of control.

Human psychology and cognitive biases play a significant role in decision-making processes that can lead to war. Perception biases, such as ethnocentrism or the tendency to view one’s own group as morally superior, can dehumanize the enemy and justify violence. Groupthink, a phenomenon in which individuals prioritize conformity and consensus over critical thinking, can lead to flawed decision-making. Confirmation bias, where decision-makers selectively interpret information to support preexisting beliefs, can hinder the consideration of alternative perspectives and peaceful solutions. Misperceptions and misunderstandings of the adversary’s intentions or capabilities can also lead to misjudgments and unintended escalations.

While long-term structural causes lay the groundwork for potential conflicts, it is often specific events or triggers that ignite the flames of war. Territorial disputes, border skirmishes, or secessionist movements can act as catalysts, sparking armed hostilities. Acts of aggression, such as invasions or terrorist attacks, can provoke retaliatory measures and escalate conflicts. Ethnic cleansing, genocide, or widespread violence targeting specific ethnic or religious groups can have devastating consequences, fuelling further hostilities and exacerbating existing tensions.

The causes of war are complex, encompassing a range of political, economic, social, and psychological factors. Understanding the interplay between these different theories and models can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the dynamics of conflict.