“Russia will not encourage an attempt by Baku or Yerevan to conduct full-fledged military operations. She can stifle this conflict in a very short time”, said Rostislav Ishchenko, a columnist for the Rossiya Segodnya news agency, in an interview with the media platform Ukraina.ru.
The expert noted that Russia is able to block the entire Caucasian border, is even able to block the Georgian coast with the help of the Black Sea Fleet, through which military contraband can theoretically pass, and is able to block the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan.
“That is, simply by blocking the delivery of supplies there, this conflict can be strangled in a fairly short time. Both in Baku and in Yerevan there are quite intelligent people. They must calculate all these options, and they calculate them”, Ischenko explained.
The leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia understand that even if one of them wins a major victory, takes 4 square kilometers of territory, and kills several hundred enemy soldiers, later on their opponent will win the exact same victory, the political scientist stressed.
Initially, this will lead to an emotional upsurge among the population, but when real victims appear, people will start asking questions to the government and why this was necessary, the specialist added.